Engine room
Global models resolve Gökova as open water — they never see the valley that funnels the afternoon breeze. So Windyaka does not trust them raw. Every night it re-measures their error against the Pro Kite Club anemometer, hour by hour, and refits the correction below.
Curve is learned · last refit 08/10/2026, 23:45:16
Thermal correction · GFS
Knots added to the raw forecast at each local hour. Below the line, the model was blowing too hard on paper; above it, the bay delivers more than the model promised.
Per-engine correction
| Engine | Night (03:00) | Peak | Kite window avg | MAE raw → cal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend | +0.2 | +4.8 @13:00 | +3.8 | 3.31 → 2.41(−27%) |
| ECMWF | -0.1 | +4.5 @13:00 | +3.5 | 3.29 → 2.29(−30%) |
| GFStruth | -1.4 | +3.5 @12:00 | +2.4 | 3.52 → 2.61(−26%) |
| ICON-EU | +0.1 | +4.8 @13:00 | +3.8 | 3.35 → 2.43(−27%) |
| Météo-France | +0.3 | +5.0 @13:00 | +4.1 | 3.36 → 2.24(−33%) |
Daily log
| Date | Engine | Hours | Window | MAE raw | MAE cal | Gain | Thermal peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Blend | 1432 | 60d | 3.31 | 2.41 | 27% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-09 | ECMWF | 1432 | 60d | 3.29 | 2.29 | 30% | 13:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-10-09 | GFS | 1432 | 60d | 3.52 | 2.61 | 26% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-10-09 | ICON | 1432 | 60d | 3.35 | 2.43 | 27% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-09 | M-Fr | 1432 | 60d | 3.36 | 2.24 | 33% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-08 | Blend | 1435 | 60d | 3.32 | 2.43 | 27% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-08 | ECMWF | 1435 | 60d | 3.29 | 2.29 | 30% | 13:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | GFS | 1435 | 60d | 3.55 | 2.61 | 26% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-10-08 | ICON | 1435 | 60d | 3.35 | 2.44 | 27% | 13:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-10-08 | M-Fr | 1435 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.25 | 33% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-07 | Blend | 1435 | 60d | 3.35 | 2.45 | 27% | 13:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-10-07 | ECMWF | 1435 | 60d | 3.28 | 2.29 | 30% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-10-07 | GFS | 1435 | 60d | 3.58 | 2.63 | 27% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-10-07 | ICON | 1435 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.45 | 27% | 13:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-10-07 | M-Fr | 1435 | 60d | 3.38 | 2.26 | 33% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-06 | Blend | 1435 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.46 | 27% | 13:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-10-06 | ECMWF | 1435 | 60d | 3.28 | 2.31 | 30% | 12:00 +4.4 |
| 2026-10-06 | GFS | 1435 | 60d | 3.57 | 2.63 | 26% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-10-06 | ICON | 1435 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.46 | 27% | 13:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-10-06 | M-Fr | 1435 | 60d | 3.38 | 2.26 | 33% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-05 | Blend | 1434 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.47 | 27% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-05 | ECMWF | 1434 | 60d | 3.26 | 2.30 | 30% | 12:00 +4.4 |
| 2026-10-05 | GFS | 1434 | 60d | 3.58 | 2.64 | 26% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-10-05 | ICON | 1434 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.47 | 27% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-05 | M-Fr | 1434 | 60d | 3.37 | 2.26 | 33% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-04 | Blend | 1434 | 60d | 3.38 | 2.49 | 26% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-04 | ECMWF | 1434 | 60d | 3.26 | 2.30 | 29% | 12:00 +4.4 |
| 2026-10-04 | GFS | 1434 | 60d | 3.59 | 2.66 | 26% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-10-04 | ICON | 1434 | 60d | 3.38 | 2.49 | 26% | 13:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-10-04 | M-Fr | 1434 | 60d | 3.39 | 2.27 | 33% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-03 | Blend | 1413 | 60d | 3.43 | 2.48 | 28% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-03 | ECMWF | 1413 | 60d | 3.29 | 2.28 | 31% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | GFS | 1413 | 60d | 3.64 | 2.67 | 27% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-10-03 | ICON | 1413 | 60d | 3.43 | 2.48 | 28% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-10-03 | M-Fr | 1413 | 60d | 3.42 | 2.27 | 34% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-10-02 | Blend | 1389 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.43 | 30% | 13:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-10-02 | ECMWF | 1389 | 60d | 3.32 | 2.29 | 31% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-10-02 | GFS | 1389 | 60d | 3.66 | 2.66 | 27% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-10-02 | ICON | 1389 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.43 | 30% | 13:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-10-02 | M-Fr | 1389 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.26 | 34% | 13:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-10-01 | Blend | 1365 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.43 | 30% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-10-01 | ECMWF | 1365 | 60d | 3.32 | 2.27 | 32% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-10-01 | GFS | 1365 | 60d | 3.66 | 2.66 | 27% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-10-01 | ICON | 1365 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.43 | 30% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-10-01 | M-Fr | 1365 | 60d | 3.46 | 2.25 | 35% | 12:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-09-30 | Blend | 1341 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.45 | 29% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | ECMWF | 1341 | 60d | 3.28 | 2.26 | 31% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | GFS | 1341 | 60d | 3.66 | 2.68 | 27% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-09-30 | ICON | 1341 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.45 | 29% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-30 | M-Fr | 1341 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.25 | 35% | 12:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-29 | Blend | 1317 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.45 | 29% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | ECMWF | 1317 | 60d | 3.25 | 2.24 | 31% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-09-29 | GFS | 1317 | 60d | 3.62 | 2.66 | 27% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-09-29 | ICON | 1317 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.45 | 29% | 13:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-29 | M-Fr | 1317 | 60d | 3.42 | 2.25 | 34% | 12:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-28 | Blend | 1293 | 60d | 3.49 | 2.43 | 30% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-28 | ECMWF | 1293 | 60d | 3.28 | 2.24 | 32% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-09-28 | GFS | 1293 | 60d | 3.65 | 2.64 | 28% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-09-28 | ICON | 1293 | 60d | 3.49 | 2.43 | 30% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-28 | M-Fr | 1293 | 60d | 3.46 | 2.25 | 35% | 12:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-09-27 | Blend | 1269 | 60d | 3.56 | 2.42 | 32% | 13:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-09-27 | ECMWF | 1269 | 60d | 3.35 | 2.22 | 34% | 12:00 +4.7 |
| 2026-09-27 | GFS | 1269 | 60d | 3.72 | 2.63 | 29% | 12:00 +3.7 |
| 2026-09-27 | ICON | 1269 | 60d | 3.56 | 2.42 | 32% | 13:00 +5.2 |
| 2026-09-27 | M-Fr | 1269 | 60d | 3.52 | 2.22 | 37% | 12:00 +5.4 |
| 2026-09-26 | Blend | 1245 | 60d | 3.56 | 2.43 | 32% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-26 | ECMWF | 1245 | 60d | 3.35 | 2.23 | 34% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-09-26 | GFS | 1245 | 60d | 3.75 | 2.65 | 29% | 12:00 +3.7 |
| 2026-09-26 | ICON | 1245 | 60d | 3.56 | 2.43 | 32% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-26 | M-Fr | 1245 | 60d | 3.53 | 2.23 | 37% | 12:00 +5.4 |
| 2026-09-25 | Blend | 1221 | 60d | 3.53 | 2.43 | 31% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-25 | ECMWF | 1221 | 60d | 3.31 | 2.22 | 33% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-09-25 | GFS | 1221 | 60d | 3.73 | 2.66 | 29% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-09-25 | ICON | 1221 | 60d | 3.53 | 2.43 | 31% | 13:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-09-25 | M-Fr | 1221 | 60d | 3.50 | 2.23 | 36% | 12:00 +5.3 |
| 2026-09-24 | Blend | 1197 | 60d | 3.51 | 2.43 | 31% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | ECMWF | 1197 | 60d | 3.28 | 2.21 | 33% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-09-24 | GFS | 1197 | 60d | 3.72 | 2.66 | 28% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-09-24 | ICON | 1197 | 60d | 3.51 | 2.43 | 31% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-24 | M-Fr | 1197 | 60d | 3.48 | 2.22 | 36% | 12:00 +5.3 |
| 2026-09-23 | Blend | 1173 | 60d | 3.49 | 2.41 | 31% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | ECMWF | 1173 | 60d | 3.25 | 2.18 | 33% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-09-23 | GFS | 1173 | 60d | 3.69 | 2.64 | 29% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-09-23 | ICON | 1173 | 60d | 3.49 | 2.41 | 31% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-23 | M-Fr | 1173 | 60d | 3.45 | 2.20 | 36% | 12:00 +5.3 |
| 2026-09-22 | Blend | 1149 | 60d | 3.48 | 2.44 | 30% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-22 | ECMWF | 1149 | 60d | 3.24 | 2.19 | 32% | 12:00 +4.4 |
| 2026-09-22 | GFS | 1149 | 60d | 3.72 | 2.66 | 29% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-09-22 | ICON | 1149 | 60d | 3.48 | 2.44 | 30% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-09-22 | M-Fr | 1149 | 60d | 3.44 | 2.21 | 36% | 12:00 +5.3 |