Engine room
Global models resolve Gökova as open water — they never see the valley that funnels the afternoon breeze. So Windyaka does not trust them raw. Every night it re-measures their error against the Pro Kite Club anemometer, hour by hour, and refits the correction below.
Curve is learned · last refit 23/08/2026, 23:45:17
Thermal correction · GFS
Knots added to the raw forecast at each local hour. Below the line, the model was blowing too hard on paper; above it, the bay delivers more than the model promised.
Per-engine correction
| Engine | Night (03:00) | Peak | Kite window avg | MAE raw → cal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blend | +1.1 | +4.9 @12:00 | +4.0 | 3.86 → 2.74(−29%) |
| ECMWF | +0.9 | +4.2 @12:00 | +3.4 | 3.59 → 2.56(−29%) |
| GFStruth | -0.7 | +3.3 @12:00 | +2.3 | 3.97 → 2.95(−26%) |
| ICON-EU | +1.1 | +4.9 @12:00 | +4.0 | 3.86 → 2.74(−29%) |
| Météo-France | +1.8 | +5.1 @12:00 | +4.4 | 3.84 → 2.67(−31%) |
Daily log
| Date | Engine | Hours | Window | MAE raw | MAE cal | Gain | Thermal peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Blend | 455 | 60d | 3.86 | 2.74 | 29% | 12:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-08-24 | ECMWF | 455 | 60d | 3.59 | 2.56 | 29% | 12:00 +4.2 |
| 2026-08-24 | GFS | 455 | 60d | 3.97 | 2.95 | 26% | 12:00 +3.3 |
| 2026-08-24 | ICON | 455 | 60d | 3.86 | 2.74 | 29% | 12:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-08-24 | M-Fr | 455 | 60d | 3.84 | 2.67 | 31% | 12:00 +5.1 |
| 2026-08-23 | Blend | 431 | 60d | 3.87 | 2.78 | 28% | 12:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-08-23 | ECMWF | 431 | 60d | 3.63 | 2.62 | 28% | 12:00 +4.2 |
| 2026-08-23 | GFS | 431 | 60d | 3.94 | 2.96 | 25% | 12:00 +3.2 |
| 2026-08-23 | ICON | 431 | 60d | 3.87 | 2.78 | 28% | 12:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-08-23 | M-Fr | 431 | 60d | 3.84 | 2.70 | 30% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Blend | 407 | 60d | 3.84 | 2.79 | 27% | 12:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-08-22 | ECMWF | 407 | 60d | 3.67 | 2.70 | 26% | 12:00 +4.1 |
| 2026-08-22 | GFS | 407 | 60d | 3.94 | 3.01 | 24% | 12:00 +3.2 |
| 2026-08-22 | ICON | 407 | 60d | 3.84 | 2.79 | 27% | 12:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-08-22 | M-Fr | 407 | 60d | 3.82 | 2.72 | 29% | 12:00 +5.0 |
| 2026-08-21 | Blend | 383 | 60d | 3.85 | 2.84 | 26% | 12:00 +4.7 |
| 2026-08-21 | ECMWF | 383 | 60d | 3.67 | 2.74 | 25% | 12:00 +4.1 |
| 2026-08-21 | GFS | 383 | 60d | 4.01 | 3.10 | 23% | 12:00 +3.1 |
| 2026-08-21 | ICON | 383 | 60d | 3.85 | 2.84 | 26% | 12:00 +4.7 |
| 2026-08-21 | M-Fr | 383 | 60d | 3.80 | 2.73 | 28% | 12:00 +4.9 |
| 2026-08-20 | Blend | 359 | 60d | 3.86 | 2.88 | 25% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-08-20 | ECMWF | 359 | 60d | 3.71 | 2.81 | 24% | 12:00 +4.0 |
| 2026-08-20 | GFS | 359 | 60d | 4.01 | 3.15 | 21% | 12:00 +2.9 |
| 2026-08-20 | ICON | 359 | 60d | 3.86 | 2.88 | 25% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-08-20 | M-Fr | 359 | 60d | 3.80 | 2.76 | 27% | 12:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-08-19 | Blend | 335 | 60d | 3.84 | 2.92 | 24% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-08-19 | ECMWF | 335 | 60d | 3.71 | 2.85 | 23% | 12:00 +3.9 |
| 2026-08-19 | GFS | 335 | 60d | 4.09 | 3.27 | 20% | 12:00 +2.9 |
| 2026-08-19 | ICON | 335 | 60d | 3.84 | 2.92 | 24% | 12:00 +4.6 |
| 2026-08-19 | M-Fr | 335 | 60d | 3.79 | 2.79 | 26% | 12:00 +4.8 |
| 2026-08-18 | ECMWF | 311 | 60d | 3.72 | 2.90 | 22% | 12:00 +3.8 |
| 2026-08-18 | Blend | 311 | 60d | 3.82 | 2.95 | 23% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-08-18 | GFS | 311 | 60d | 4.15 | 3.36 | 19% | 12:00 +2.8 |
| 2026-08-18 | ICON | 311 | 60d | 3.82 | 2.95 | 23% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-08-18 | M-Fr | 311 | 60d | 3.78 | 2.83 | 25% | 12:00 +4.7 |
| 2026-08-17 | Blend | 287 | 60d | 3.76 | 2.95 | 22% | 12:00 +4.3 |
| 2026-08-17 | ECMWF | 287 | 60d | 3.66 | 2.91 | 21% | 12:00 +3.7 |
| 2026-08-17 | GFS | 287 | 60d | 3.98 | 3.25 | 18% | 12:00 +2.5 |
| 2026-08-17 | ICON | 287 | 60d | 3.76 | 2.95 | 22% | 12:00 +4.3 |
| 2026-08-17 | M-Fr | 287 | 60d | 3.70 | 2.82 | 24% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-08-16 | Blend | 263 | 60d | 3.82 | 3.02 | 21% | 12:00 +4.1 |
| 2026-08-16 | ECMWF | 263 | 60d | 3.65 | 2.96 | 19% | 12:00 +3.4 |
| 2026-08-16 | GFS | 263 | 60d | 4.07 | 3.35 | 18% | 12:00 +2.3 |
| 2026-08-16 | ICON | 263 | 60d | 3.82 | 3.02 | 21% | 12:00 +4.1 |
| 2026-08-16 | M-Fr | 263 | 60d | 3.76 | 2.89 | 23% | 12:00 +4.5 |
| 2026-08-15 | Blend | 239 | 60d | 3.74 | 3.01 | 19% | 12:00 +3.9 |
| 2026-08-15 | ECMWF | 239 | 60d | 3.58 | 2.95 | 18% | 12:00 +3.2 |
| 2026-08-15 | GFS | 239 | 60d | 4.06 | 3.37 | 17% | 12:00 +2.1 |
| 2026-08-15 | ICON | 239 | 60d | 3.74 | 3.01 | 19% | 12:00 +3.9 |
| 2026-08-15 | M-Fr | 239 | 60d | 3.69 | 2.92 | 21% | 12:00 +4.3 |
| 2026-08-14 | Blend | 215 | 60d | 3.81 | 3.13 | 18% | 12:00 +3.8 |
| 2026-08-14 | ECMWF | 215 | 60d | 3.48 | 2.91 | 16% | 12:00 +3.0 |
| 2026-08-14 | GFS | 215 | 60d | 3.97 | 3.35 | 16% | 12:00 +2.0 |
| 2026-08-14 | ICON | 215 | 60d | 3.81 | 3.13 | 18% | 12:00 +3.8 |
| 2026-08-14 | M-Fr | 215 | 60d | 3.68 | 2.99 | 19% | 12:00 +4.1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Blend | 191 | 60d | 3.90 | 3.24 | 17% | 12:00 +3.7 |
| 2026-08-13 | ECMWF | 191 | 60d | 3.38 | 2.83 | 16% | 12:00 +2.8 |
| 2026-08-13 | GFS | 191 | 60d | 3.95 | 3.36 | 15% | 12:00 +1.9 |
| 2026-08-13 | ICON | 191 | 60d | 3.90 | 3.24 | 17% | 12:00 +3.7 |
| 2026-08-13 | M-Fr | 191 | 60d | 3.70 | 3.06 | 17% | 12:00 +4.0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Blend | 167 | 60d | 3.81 | 3.26 | 14% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-08-12 | ECMWF | 167 | 60d | 3.31 | 2.82 | 15% | 11:00 +2.6 |
| 2026-08-12 | GFS | 167 | 60d | 3.92 | 3.39 | 14% | 11:00 +1.7 |
| 2026-08-12 | ICON | 167 | 60d | 3.81 | 3.26 | 14% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-08-12 | M-Fr | 167 | 60d | 3.71 | 3.11 | 16% | 12:00 +3.8 |
| 2026-08-11 | Blend | 143 | 60d | 3.81 | 3.34 | 12% | 12:00 +3.3 |
| 2026-08-11 | ECMWF | 143 | 60d | 3.17 | 2.75 | 13% | 11:00 +2.4 |
| 2026-08-11 | GFS | 143 | 60d | 3.88 | 3.42 | 12% | 12:00 +1.5 |
| 2026-08-11 | ICON | 143 | 60d | 3.81 | 3.34 | 12% | 12:00 +3.3 |
| 2026-08-11 | M-Fr | 143 | 60d | 3.68 | 3.13 | 15% | 12:00 +3.6 |
| 2026-08-10 | Blend | 119 | 60d | 3.90 | 3.44 | 12% | 12:00 +3.1 |
| 2026-08-10 | ECMWF | 119 | 60d | 3.07 | 2.70 | 12% | 11:00 +2.4 |
| 2026-08-10 | GFS | 119 | 60d | 3.88 | 3.46 | 11% | 11:00 +1.1 |
| 2026-08-10 | ICON | 119 | 60d | 3.90 | 3.44 | 12% | 12:00 +3.1 |
| 2026-08-10 | M-Fr | 119 | 60d | 3.70 | 3.22 | 13% | 12:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-08-09 | Blend | 95 | 60d | 3.96 | 3.52 | 11% | 11:00 +2.9 |
| 2026-08-09 | ECMWF | 95 | 60d | 3.03 | 2.63 | 13% | 11:00 +2.6 |
| 2026-08-09 | GFS | 95 | 60d | 3.80 | 3.44 | 10% | 11:00 +0.8 |
| 2026-08-09 | ICON | 95 | 60d | 3.96 | 3.52 | 11% | 11:00 +2.9 |
| 2026-08-09 | M-Fr | 95 | 60d | 3.87 | 3.31 | 14% | 11:00 +3.5 |
| 2026-08-08 | Blend | 71 | 60d | 3.89 | 3.53 | 9% | 11:00 +2.7 |
| 2026-08-08 | ECMWF | 71 | 60d | 3.00 | 2.77 | 8% | 11:00 +2.3 |
| 2026-08-08 | GFS | 71 | 60d | 3.84 | 3.54 | 8% | 11:00 +0.5 |
| 2026-08-08 | ICON | 71 | 60d | 3.89 | 3.53 | 9% | 11:00 +2.7 |
| 2026-08-08 | M-Fr | 71 | 60d | 3.96 | 3.48 | 12% | 11:00 +3.4 |